Thursday, November 12, 2009

Year After Year

Just saw that the MABRA racing calendar has been posted for 2010 and I am super pumped for the season. Now I just have to find a team and some fitness. Too bad I'm having too much fun getting drunk and racing cross right now. One of them has got to go eventually, but it's so hard to decide between them when they seem so right for each other.

Speaking of amateurism, CyclingNews posted an article about the Lance Effect yesterday. Apparently USA Cycling experiences a 5-percent growth in membership whenever Lance is riding his bike, versus 3.3-percent growth in 2007 and 2008 when he was retired. I don't know too much about statistics, but I feel like this report might be jumping the gun. While the article does make it clear that USA Cycling isn't sure to what degree the Lance Effect has increased membership, it does say that Lance was significant contributing factor.

Lance retired in 2005 and didn't start racing again until 2009. Membership growth was still growing in 2006 after he retired. What's to say that 2007 and 2008 weren't just off years for racing bikes? Or that there was a huge epidemic that turned all but a few, sane cyclists into triathletes those years? I'm not saying that Lance isn't good for the sport. And due to my aversion to all math-related topics, I am certainly not suggesting that we do an actual statistical study on the Lance Effect. I just think that a 1.7-percent decrease could be a fluke. Also if you want to promote cycling in the US and see what motivates people to ride and race their bikes, you can't just rely on the "Oh! It must be Lance!" adage. I also think that USA Cycling should hire me as a consultant and hire a statistician for me to boss around and make my domestique.

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